Charlottetown Islanders December Analysis Part 2

By: Nathan A'Hearn
Follow him @TheTermiNathan

Photo credit: Darrell Theriault.

Were the Islanders' wins this month a factor of luck in percentages or driven by an improvement in play with stronger possession?  I'm thinking it's the latter.  Below we are going to take a look at Shot Differential, Estimated Fenwick (Courtesy of CHLStats.com and myself) and PDO (Calculated by CHLStats.com)

Shot Differential:

In Wins: 67.2 per cent

In Losses: 38.25 per cent

Overall Charlottetown dictated the play in the first period in December.  This really shows itself in wins where the Islanders had more than two thirds of all shots in the first period.  If you are getting most of the shots you are controlling the puck most of the time and this results in goals.

In Wins: 51.3 per cent

In Losses: 47.6 per cent

The second period is usually more even for teams who control the play a majority of the first period. This can be because of opponents making adjustments and stepping up their level of play to keep the game close while there is still plenty of time.  Notice that the Islanders' performance in wins compared to losses is not as huge as it is compared to the first period.  Getting equal chances or having a few more shots can mean all the difference if another goal is scored.

In Wins: 61.8 per cent

In Losses: 58.4 per cent

Initially, you make look at this and think that having 58.4 per cent of all shots during losses is impressive.  Don't get me wrong, it isn't a bad thing, but it isn't unusual for losing teams to have  greater than 50 per cent of the shot totals when trailing.  What is impressive however, is that it appears the Islanders have had the ability to "close out" opponents and limit chances to let other teams get back into the game.  Usually this is a trait of top tier teams so for the Islander's to show glimpses of this is huge for this team. Nodding my cap to the coaches for keeping the roster motivated for 60 minutes regardless of the score and effective adjustments.

In Wins: 58.7 per cent

In Losses:  42.7 per cent

This just continues to iterate how important it is to control the play when you want to win.  When the result of the game is a loss,  Charlottetown is letting their opponents shoot 57.3 per cent of total shots which may only be a few extra shots when both teams are firing on all cylinders, but in a stingy game it can make the difference.  Overall these numbers are very positive and indicates that this team is in the midst of turning things around and improving significantly from September/October.

PDO

Above we have the Isles' PDO performance for each of the nine games this month on the chart. Average for this is 100.  Take a look at Game 4 on this Chart.  This is the game on Dec. 12 versus Baie-Comeau.  Even though statistically the Islanders controlled the most of the shots, the end result was a 5-0 loss because of low shooting percentage and save percentage which is going to happen from time-to-time.  Data suggests that overachieving teams will regress to the mean of 100 and underachieving will improve to 100.  With a save percentage ranking sixth in the league., maybe an improvement to their 14th ranked shooting percentage is upcoming.

Estimated Fenwick Close

Also known as Shot Differential After two periods.  What I can tell you differently then what is already noted is that our season average for Fenwick Close is 46.05 per cent which ranks last in the QMJHL (39.75 average in first 10 games of the season).  These are not your Islanders from September and October...

(Rolling average just means they take the average of the last 10 games played after each game is played.  For example: It starts at 10 because the average is computed after 10 games.  Game  No. 11 has games 2-11. Game  No. 12 has 3-12, etc)

Keys To January

1) Improved Save Percentage

2)  Keep out-shooting opposition early
3) Veteran players continue to take pressure away from first line

December's Top Performers
Forwards:

Alexandre Goulet: 9G, 2A, 11PTS, plus-2

Spenser Cobbold: 1G, 3A, 4PTS, plus-5 (5 Games)

Daniel Sprong: 6G, 4A, 10PTS, minus-3

Defencemenen:

Dexter Weber - 1G , 6A, 7PTS, plus-two
Ryan MacKinnon -  2G, 5A, 7PTS, minus-two
David Henley - 1G , 0A, 1Pt, plus-one