Introduction
Before we get started, let's take some time to define words that are still relatively new to the mainstream hockey fan.
First is Score Effects. To summarize, Score Effects is the concept that states that when a team is trailing into the third, that they will play more aggressive and take more shots. Likewise when a team is ahead it will play more conservative in order to protect that lead. Simple enough.
Shot Differential is simply the ratio between shots for and shots against. Over 50 per cent means a team takes more shots then the opposition and under 50 per cent means you see more pucks fired at your goalie.
I'm sure you are all wondering if this has anything to do with the Charlottetown Islanders, and I'm here to tell you that it does. Albeit still early in the season, one can use Shot Deferential to identify trends to tell which direction a team is about to go in while Score Effects can help explain previous results. For example: Teams who have had an unlucky record or have overachieved.
Finally you can use Score Effects and Shot Differential together to predict how teams will match up against one another. Since Corsi and Fenwick statistics are generally unavailable to junior leagues and their fans, it becomes even more crucial to use the information that is readily available to its best advantage.
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| Photo credit: Darell Theriault. |
Analyzing Team Record
Lets get started.
The Charlottetown Islanders when scoring first are 7-2-0-0.
The Charlottetown Islanders giving up the first goal are 3-9-1-1.
Combining this with Score Effects we can conclude that more times then not, a team that scores first or maintains the lead heading into the third period has a higher chance of winning the game. Part of the reason why the Islanders win after scoring the first goal is because their goaltending is among the best in the league despite averaging more shots against then shots for.
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| Photo credit: Darrell Theriault. |
Shot Differential
Let us dwell deeper
When the Islanders are leading in shots after two periods: 3-3-1
When they are behind in shots after two: 6-8-1
Now if you take away September
Leading after two periods: 2-3-1
Behind after two: 3-6-0
Why did we take away September? It is because the Islanders were a little lucky in stealing games in the third period. Especially against Saint John and Acadie-Bathurst when they were outshot a combined 62-35. This is unsustainable over the long run. September is also a time where a lot of Q teams are without their best players as they compete for NHL jobs in training camps and the quality in the line-up is not what it is in after September.
Shot Differential In The NHL
In a sample size of the past four years. The top five NHL teams in shot differential when the game is tied were Los Angeles, Chicago, San Jose, St. Louis and Pittsburgh. Three of these teams were also Top 5 in Corsi with the other two being Top 10. These teams also captured three Stanley Cups. Shot Differential can be a reasonable statistic for measuring dominance.
Charlottetown Islanders Shot Differential Performance
(1st, 2nd, 3rd and Overall)
November (Five Games)
Not convinced that this applies to the QMJHL? Division Leaders Rimouski and Sherbrooke are among leaders in Shot Differential. Maratimes' Leader Saint John is not among the leaders but still remains positive. Their are a few outliers, Acadie-Bathurst (recognize them?) remains positive in shot differential at this time despite being last in the league standings. This will either change as the season grows or they have been shooting and saving shots at a severely unlucky percentage.
Parting Thoughts:
We saw a variety of outcomes this past weekend with the Islanders. In Gatineau, despite not scoring first, The Islanders maintained pressure and outshot their opponent in the final two periods to come out with the win. In Blainville-Boisbriand, they failed to score first and failed to garner any kind of momentum. In Drummondville, the game was close going into the third period where the Islanders were able to pull away and put up goals. They had success in not just outshooting their opponents in the third but by being able to put up shots at or a better rate than their opponents. This is much more encouraging to see over the long term compared to winning a game with only eight shots after two periods of play. These were playoff caliber teams. If this is a sign of things to come, things may start to look up for the Isles as long as they can keep up with their opponents or set the tone early. Their overall numbers may not look encouraging but it is the team in March that will tell us if this was early season woes or reasonable expectations.
Bonus Statistics:
Charlottetown is 1-3-0-0 in one-goal games
Charlottetown is 15th in Shots Per Game at 28.51
Charlottetown is16th in Shots Against Per Game at 33.31
Charlottetown's Goal Differential in the first period is 15-22 or 40.54 per cent
Charlottetown's Goal Differential in the second period is 24-34 or 41.37 per cent
Charlottetown's Goal Differential in the third period is 32-26 or 55.17 per cent
Overall Goal Differential is 72-84 or 46.15 per cent
Charlottetown's Shooting Percentage is 11 per cent
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